Tuesday, September 11, 2018

First win of 2018 comes late for Niblick - Race for the Jackson Cup is now clearly defined

The BMW Championship ended on Monday with one of the more exciting finishes this year but the rain-extended event allowed some of the attention to be diverted and the tournament quietly slipped into the history books. The third leg of the Fedex Cup Playoffs is in the rear view as Keegan Bradley somehow managed to snatch the victory from the hands of Justin Rose. After they both bogeyed 18 to fall into a playoff with each other Keegan won on the first playoff hole with a par. Much like Rose's Masters meltdown on 18 against Sergio he did something similar here and it cost him dearly yet again. 

Like Keegan who was somewhat of an out-of-nowhere winner this week after trudging through a 6 year winless drought, Niblick18 was no familiar face to the spotlight. A recent graduate in 2017 from the fantasy Web.com Tour he joined the ranks of the First Timers League and came away with a solo victory in his opening season at the John Deere Classic. Since then he's not really come up on the radar so much and in 2018 he's not appeared in a single Top 3 until today. 

It's been a journey of epic proportions for the fantasy journeyman as he's had to deal with the fantasy passing him by for post round interviews and recap emails. But in the end his endurance paid off as he's now squarely back in the winner's circle with a huge effort at the BMW Championship. The paycheck he'll take home is larger than his entire rookie season earnings. Despite the lack of press the second year fantasy golfer gets he's still showed that he can rise to the occasion. His 12 Top 10s this year now surpass his rookie season mark of 11 and it's a clear progress year overall. Congrats to Niblick18 for his first win of 2018 - it was a hard one to come by and he did it at one of the biggest stages.



Race for the Jackson Cup

As the action at the BMW Championship progressed it was becoming clear that the front runner would have a nice buffer entering the final week in Atlanta. And with a second place finish for Gophers it's no surprise that he sits atop the leaderboard with one week to go. Gophers has been on an absolutely incredible tear over the past three and half months. During those 14 weeks he's a perfect 14-for-14 in Top 10s, not missing a single week from! There is some uncertainty about a streak like this but it's fairly safe to say that this is a new record. Gophers now has 24 Top 10s for the season and yet, despite this incredible streak, he still stands one Top 10 shy of his 2015 record of 25, which he could tie this week at East Lake with one final Top 10. It shouldn't be a surprise that when Gophers stacked up 25 Top 10s he took home the Jackson Cup for the first time. And now, three years later, he's got a chance to equal that number yet again and take home the Jackson Cup, yet again. 

Without much hope of catching Gophers, Talkeetna98 is on the verge of having a career season. The 4th year vet has been a perpetual force to be reckoned with on fantasy tour and he's finally reaping some of the benefits for his stellar play. This year the stars seemed to
align as the all start gamer has taken home 4 titles this year, including a win at The Players Championship. Talkeetna is about 120 points back of first but he's got about a 20 point lead over the charging Kikakee. He'll need to send out his A team in the final week if he wants to assure the second place finish and the $60 paycheck that comes along with it. 


Kikakee Tees has seemingly come out of nowhere to charge up the ranks and into third place. He put on a brilliant performance at the BMW Championship but came up just short of the victory and settled for a tie for third place. The finish gives Kikakee an incredible 22 Top 10s for the season and 5 Top 10s. He's only got an 8 point lead on Whiny Little Pitch who could easily snatch the final payout spot from him but you know he's going to release the hounds at East Lake in an effort to win his third event of the year. 


Summer Segment Race

This is the race to keep an eye on. With one week to go only 25 points separates 1st place Gophers from second place Talkeetna. Both teams have put together a stellar second half of the season to get into this position and both teams are 1-2 for the season and segment. It's truly a battle of heavyweights as both are seasoned vets who've been tested in pressure situations. 

On his side, Gophers has been here before. He's stared death in the face and said "not
today." He's won two segments and a Jackson Cup. But he's never won a Summer Segment. This would be the trifecta of segment titles that the former champ wants badly. His trophy case would near completion if he can add this trophy to the shelf. 


For Talkeetna, his story is viewed in the light of an ascending contender. One who's always been hanging around, always knocking but finally has a chance to break down the door. In his fourth year on the job he's never won a segment title. He has led the summer for most of it but stumbled a bit down the stretch. He's managed to regain his composure though and heads into the final week needing to make up just 25 points. It would be a come back victory for the record books and there would be few better candidates to pull it off than Talkeetna. 

History awaits. 

The Path to One Hundred

The path to $100 in season earnings is not an easy journey for the modern fantasy golf team. On average only 3 teams per year reach the $100 earnings mark. Winning out here is not like winning in a football or baseball league. They're few and often times far between. In a given season a team is lucky to win twice. With one week left and a $40 paycheck going to the winner of the Tour Championship, a $40 paycheck going to the winner of the Summer Segment and $150, $60 and $25 paychecks going to the top 3 season finishers there's several routes for teams to get over the $100 mark. Besides Putting w/a Long Iron who's already at $110 in earnings there are 10 teams with the potential to break the mark. 

Talkeetan98 ($85) - his path is perhaps the easiest as he's currently in second for the season and second for the segment. If he won the TOUR Championship he'd break the bank and finish the season with $125. And if he won the TOUR Championship he'd have a really good chance of winning the Summer Segment and finishing in second overall which would earn him the tidy sum of $225. The potential for the biggest payout of his career is calling. 

That's Wet ($85) - without a shot at winning either the season or segment he's pretty much got one legit hope to crack $100. He'll need to win the TOUR Championship outright. This would put him over the top at $125. However, he does have a very small but possible opportunity to sneak into third overall which carries a $25 paycheck. He'd need to make up about 85 points on both Whiny and Kikakee which, although highly unlikely, is within the realm of possibility. Either outcome - tourney win or 3rd place finish - would get him over the hump. 

Eat My Grind ($85) - the early season's hot shot, Grind has cooled down since the frosty winter months but he's still managed a career season in earnings. Regardless, he'd love to get over the $100 mark and winning the TOUR Championship is his only hope. The paycheck would put him at $125 overall. The cruellest fate that could befall Grind would be if her were to win it would be if two other teams won it alongside him - splitting the paycheck three ways and giving him $98 in overall earnings. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. 

Driving Miss Daisy ($75) - a formidable contender this year, she's accrued a career high in earnings so far and had a legit chance to easily break the $100 mark but she fell off the pace significantly which put her back in 6th place and over 100 points back of outright 3rd place. The only legit payout she can hope for is the TOUR Championship which would put her at $115 - shattering her rookie season of $50. 

Halve Ouimet ($60) - once the league leader and now in 11th place, Ouimet has fallen hard. A couple missed weeks in July drove the nail in his coffin too deep to pry out. But with both a segment and tournament win the commish has one shot at getting to $100 - he'll have to win the TOUR Championship outright. 

2 Footer ($60) - in the same boat as Ouimet, he'll need to win the TOUR Championship outright. Any split would make him fall short of the hundo mark and his chances of finishing in the top 3 overall disappeared around week 29 (now in week 36). He's won three times already so why not a fourth?

Kings Deer ($60) - needs a win at the TOUR Championship. It's the only route to $100 for the vet as he's really been a fair weather fantasy player this year - winning once in each segment. A fourth win would do the trick and although he's not a favorite to take the title this week he's at least a dark horse. 

Gophers ($20) - unsuspectingly, Gophers has risen in the ranks over the past 10 weeks and all but run away with the season championship and potentially the summer title as well. Entering the final week he's got over a 120 point buffer between him and second place - all but assuring him of the Jackson Cup and the $150 paycheck. If he wins the segment as well he'll take an extra $40 on top of that. And throw in the TOUR Championship for good measure it's possible Gophers could walk with $210. It's unlikely he grabs all three remaining paychecks but if he wins the tournament he's guaranteed to win the the other two. 

Whiny Little Pitch ($45) - she's got a tall order indeed if she wants to crack the $100 mark. She would need to win the TOUR Championship AND overtake Kikakee for third place giving her final day paycheck of $65 and season earnings payout of $110. She could go as high as second place overall with a resounding win in Atlanta putting her final payout at $145 but that's less likely. Either way, she'll need a miracle. 

Kikakee Tees ($40) - the current third place team, he's got two routes to the $100 mark. He'll need to win the TOUR Championship - that's a must - and would put him at $80. He'd then need to automatically wrap up third place which would give him another $25 ($105 total). AND if he beat Talkeetna by 28 points or more he'd snag second place overall and the $60 paycheck putting him at $140 overall. Anything is possible. 


TOUR Championship

The final week is here. The field has been whittled down to 30 and the pickings will be slim but of high value. The best of the best are the only ones left standing. Everyone looks to have at least one start left with key players so it's sure to be a high scoring battle to the finish. 

East Lake is the venue for the final event and it will certainly test the season golfer. Our defending champ from 2017 is Tomte but since she's not in the league this year the podium has no ghosts to haunt it. It's wide open. With $40 on the line there's more than a few teams who'd like to take that prize money to either pad their earnings or nearly pay for their entry fee. 

Saddle up - the final even of the season is next. 


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