Monday, February 15, 2016

Eat My Grind Narrowly Defeats Field At Pebble - Win's Career Championship #1

For true golf fans there are a few courses on the PGA Tour that mark the pinnacle of what a golf course should look like. Lush, green fairways hugging rugged coastal cliffs, and furry fescue knolls guarding slick undulating greens. Every winter the pros head down to the Pebble Beach Golf Links to try their hands at what is truly one of the great golf courses in the world. And then a bunch of celebrities show up and ruin the tournament. If you caught any part of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am hoping to watch a professional golf tournament then you were most likely disappointed. CBS made sure that instead of showing you professional golf they'd force feed you mid-round interviews with corporate big wigs and analysis of Justin Timberlake's swing plane. The Pebble Beach Pro-Am is the golf world's equivalent of People Magazine. But thankfully by the time Sunday rolled around and Jim Nantz had finished praising AT&T, CBS realized there was still a professional tournament going on. And they could breathe easy as their favorite ratings-grabbing golfer Phil Mickelson was in the mix.


Over on the Fantasy Tour  the celebrity side-show at Pebble might have been a good reprieve from the succession of zero-point scores adding up on their roster. No one could have predicted it. Or at least no one act on it if they made such a prediction. Bronson Burgoon, Vaughn Taylor, Hiroshi Iwata, Jonas Blixt - not the obvious choices to lead your roster to the victory. The regular favorites apparently were too distracted by the celebs themselves to put together a substantial charge at the title. Going rogue last week was slightly more rewarded than sticking with the main stays of Sneds, Holmes, Day and DJ who all forgot to bring their A game. And Eat My Grind made just the right amount of rogue picks. He staid away from most of the popular horses like Snedeker, Spieth and Jimmy. His stable instead included the unlikely pick of Jerry Kelly and the semi-likely picks of Danny Lee and Shane Lowry. But his main horse was a thoroughbred - Phil Mickelson.

Eat My Grind broke from the gates on Thursday in fine form. In the early rounds he managed to put together a solid accumulation of points when points were scarce. Over the first two rounds the average player scored 3.6 points while Eat My Grind's roster averaged 6.3 points a man. Scoring rose a bit on Saturday but still remained below average as most teams came to the conclusion that another dropped score was inevitable. But the Grind pushed on through the mire of tepid scoring and claimed the lead heading into the weekend. This was new territory for the veteran after going winless in his inaugural season on Fantasy Tour one year ago. A breakthrough win was not a foregone conclusion however as the rookie Grampa Levs was pulling along side him late on Sunday. It truly was a horse race and ended with a photo finish. Although Eat My Grind had started the final day with an 8 point lead it quickly evaporated as Grampa Levs pulled within 2 on the back of Patrick Reed's low round of 7 under. But it was not to be the rookie's day as The Grind had lady luck on his side. With Phil leading the way he manged to score the magic number of 114 points. It would be just 2 points more than the charging Grampa Levs and the long awaited win had finally come by the narrowest of margins. Eat My Grind had played 41 long weeks without a title of his own but he can now add Pebble Beach Champion to his name. Congrats Eat My Grind.




2nd Place

It could not have been a narrower defeat for the surging rookie Grampa Levs as he nearly stole away the trophy from Eat My Grind's hands. He made one sub all week and it couldn't have happened at a worse time as he missed out on Jimmy Walker's 9-under, 20-point round. Oh what could have been. Despite missing out on his first career win Grampa Levs did get his first career Top 3 (and Top 10). The season hasn't been a cake walk for him so far but it's still early. In such a strange scoring week it's hard to judge this one as a sign of things to come but it's gotta feel good to get on the money earnings leaderboard.

3rd Place

It was a tie for 3rd between a vet and rookie as That's Wet and Kings Deer both snuck into the Top 3 with 102 points. Incredibly, this is That's Wet's 2nd Top 3 in a row as the 2015 4th place finisher looks to be reviving his 2015 dominance. The winter has historically been his best Segment so it's no surprise to see him coming into form. It'll be maintaining the pace that will be the real challenge. For Kings Deer it's also his second Top 3 of the season and 3rd Top 10. The newcomer is putting together an impressive resume so far and currently sits in 4th place for the season. Time will tell if the King is serious about ruling or if he'll be deposed from the standings.

Notables:

The wily veteran Haney's Got A Gun is on a bit of a hot streak at the moment as he snagged his 3rd Top 10. Seeing the name Haney's Got A Gun atop the leaderboard is akin to seeing Miguel Angel Jiminez on the leaderboard at Augusta - unexpected but welcome. After a 2015 season in which he managed to secure only a single Top 10 finish this is certainly a welcome change of pace for the old timer. Long gone are the days when he painted masterpieces with hard fought victories - his last championship coming in 2014. But Haney is sending a clear message to the league - he's just starting to warm up.

Coming in at 6th place last week is a familiar face so far this season. Short Strokes has been blowing away expectations for his inaugural season on fantasy tour and chalked up his 5th Top 10 in 6 winter tournaments. This pace is similar to the torrid streak that Gophers was on last year and we all know how that ended (Gophers won it all). Whatever Short Strokes strategy is it's right on the mark and just like a swing that's striking the ball true it's best not to fiddle with something that works. He's the leading candidate for rookie of the year at the moment but there's still plenty of fantasy golf left to be played.

One surprise of the season so far is the emergence of 4 Hitting 5. After his rookie season in 2015 many pundits wrote him off as a middling player who'd never win on fantasy tour. But now they're changing their tune as the veteran has quickly snagged 3 Top 10s and 1 Top 3. Some might call it an early season fluke but from the roster management that he's been showing his strokes gained: subbing line would have to be among the league leaders. 4 Hitting 5 is currently sitting pretty in 8th place overall and will remain to be a contender week to week. Look for him to spread his wings at Riviera this week as he's a horse for the course.

Where Eagles Dare seems to be settling in after his long sought win a couple weeks ago. He snagged his 3rd Top 10 of the year with an 8th place finish at Pebble but despite these several successes he finds himself well off the pace in 26th place for the Winter Segment. It's not a fun place to be and creates a daunting task for any competitor who's looking to make a run for the Jackson Cup come September. But there is time and Eagles is savvy enough to rise in the ranks.

It was a 3 way tie for 9th place as two league veterans had to make room for one rookie as they all just barely squeezed into the Top 10. Returning to the Top 10 from this event last year were Gophers and Baby Draw. They managed a 5th and 2nd place finish here last year, respectively, so it seems the coast track at Pebble Beach seems to fit their game. At least the bending fairways seem to set up perfectly for a baby draw. For Gophers this is his 2nd Top 10 in as many tournaments and perhaps the 2015 champ is returning to form a bit. But he's all the way back in 23rd place so there's nothing to write home about at the moment. Baby Draw has accumulated a solid 3 Top 10s so far and is currently in 11th place among a tight field near the top. But perhaps the most notable finisher in this T9 group is the rookie sensation Michelson. This is also her 3rd Top 10 of the young season but even more impressive for the 1st year newbie out of Pennsylvania is her current spot in the standings. After things got shaken up with yet another round of dropped scores Michelson sits in 6th place - 1 of only 3 rookies to occupy the Top 10 at the moment.

Top 10 Bonus Points Earners
The Winter Segment has reached its zenith as it's now halfway over. Statistical trends have started to emerge as the analysts have been crunching the numbers to see who's been grinding it out and who's coasting on bonus points. It's no surprise that the man who's currently king of the mountain at the moment is also the league leader in bonus points. Short Strokes leads the field by 30 points and clearly knows how to pick a winner. A couple anomalies in there are the presence of Chubbs Peterson and Gophers who are 22nd and 23rd respectively so it goes without saying that although they've racked up the bonus points they're missing key rounds from bench players when it counts. Of the top 10 bonus points earners in the league 6 of them are inside the Top 10 in standings. This category figures to be a huge determining factor in the overall shape of the season leaderboard and separates the wheat from the chaff.

Top 15 Teams for Points Gained: Non-Winner Bonus Points
But if we take a look at another stat line there's a slightly different story to be told. Points Gained: Non-Winner Bonus looks at the average amount of bonus points scored from 2nd and 3rd place players and compares the teams average for these points against the league average. Eat My Grind - not even inside the Top 15 teams overall - is tied for 1st in this category with 4.37 points gained above the league average each week. It's his lack of winner picks that's left him on the outside looking in and as a result he's had to grind it out. Most teams on this list are outside the Top 10 overall so this is the list that separates the grinders from the bonus point coasters.

For reference, this ranking shows the top 15 teams for Points Gained: Total Bonus which includes bonus points from both the winner as well as 2nd and 3rd place players. An amazing trend can be seen already as Short Strokes has been scoring on average nearly double the amount of bonus points above the league average (9.46) than his closest competitor. If you're on the bottom half of this ranking then you're trending in the wrong direction and scoring negative points each week against the league average. Interestingly, the only Top 10 team in the standings who has a negative stat for this category is 4 Hitting 5. Somehow the 8th ranked team in the league has been scoring -1.96 strokes behind the league average each week but has managed to maintain a spot inside the Top 10. It's a habit that will be hard to maintain if he wants to hold onto his spot on the leaderboard.

THIS WEEK the Tour makes it's annual stop in LA-LA Land as the famed track at Riviera hosts the next installment of the Northern Trust Open, in Los Angeles. Last year, it was Chubbs Peterson who famously grappled with fate and came away with his second career win and all without changing his roster from the previous week. It was one for the record books. It's another one of those "horses for courses" situations as several of the big dogs on tour seem to play well here. But if last week was any indication of how things are going to go then it's best to go rogue and pick the no names as they keep leading tournaments against all odds. If anyone picks a Bronson Burgoon type wild card and wins then you can throw away the guide book as all bets are off. The Winter Segment is now half over and the leaderboard is tightening up. Week 7 marks the beginning of the homestretch for the season's first Segment and if anyone's planning a late charge then now's your time. To the draft room.

Pebble Beach Final Standings
PosPebble BeachRnd 1Rnd 2Rnd 3Rnd 4Total
1Eat My Grind34162242114
2GrampaLevs24162250112
3That's Wet!28101648102
3Kings Deer26122044102
5Haney's Got a Gun3022642100
6Short Strokes262264498
74 Hitting 5386183496
8Where Eagles Dare302125094
9Baby Draw^3262204492
9Michelson222264292
9Gophers262263892
12BurningTime182304090
12Talkeetna98282263490
122 footer3010222890
15Jowls361083488
16Papa Pilgrim184204486
17DaHoffa241264284
17Salad Thongs186283284
19Mother Rabbit142283882
19Rug Munchers341083082
21BevGin&Tonic36224080
21Tourball1616143480
21Tomte302222680
21Mastersway280302280
25Chubbs 'Part Time' Peterson300202676
26Kikakee Tees382122072
27Show and Dough28063670
27Hogan's Heros222202670
29Freeside Links26063668
30Whiny Little Pitch16264266
30TIGER WOULD PUTT!!161063466
32Swing Easy When It's Breezy1216162064
33Halve Ouimet200122860
34IN YOUR LIFE!16283258
34Taylormade184142258
36Night Putting120161644
37Marlowe Dubuisson1484632

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